Betfair laying - Silver Fox style

I'm currently considering a blanket laying strategy as an exercise to gauge the profitability of laying activity on the exchanges.

I don't know whether to lay every fav for a maximum liability of 1 point, or lay each fav for a stake of 1 point.
I'll have to run a few simulations.
I don't want to get into a situation of laying too many longer priced horses even if they are favs. I would prefer lays to be in the range of evens to 3/1.
I think there is generally a bigger over-round built into shorter SP favs. I also think the term ‘blanket’ laying implies that it is pretty arbitrary, but over time I expect revisions and tweaks to refine the approach, possibly into exclusively handicaps, certain distances, race types etc

I had a quick look at results last week, and played the lays game for real myself on Tuesday, picking all overnight favs that fit the range. There were only 3 in markets that were mature, & I laid them all to 1 point stake by the backer.
All three lost, for a profit of 3 points

On the second day I laid three horses in this category, and all three won, at evens, 6/4 and 7/4. I had put in a lay on another but it didn't get matched, at 2/1, and that won too.
Out of interest the 6/4 horse was matched at 55 in running for £400 so a good result all round for backers there.
My loss on Day 2 was 4.25 points.

On day 2 I could have laid more but I tried to get a bit too clever and decided to stay away from one of the day meetings where there were a lot of qualifying favs and instead went for an evening card where the favs looked a bit less solid. This backfired as the afternoon jollies were all sunk and the evening ones all won.
I think I have to stay away from this line in the future, and just let the results take care of themselves.
As it is a fact as certain as night follows day, that bets on SP favs will always return a loss, it stands to reason that this will make money.
The judgement will remain as to what lay price will constitute an SP return, and when making an instruction for a lay where markets are immature, this will still require a little bit of judgement to avoid offering backers excessive value.

Another advantage of blanket laying without exceptions is that it is less time consuming than a detailed evaluation of every race which could end up taking a full days work.

As it stands I doubt William Hill’s are quaking in their boots, but stay with me, there may be gold in this yet.

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I see the Racing Post are making some changes to their website which is currently a complete dog's breakfast since the move to racingpost.com
Personally I only use about a quarter of the screen as the only features I am interested in are the news and racecard features, which are surrounded by pointless video clips that don't work, adverts and a lot of general irrelevant rubbish.

Whoever paid to have this redesigned needs their head examining, but with £1.80 prices per paper copy and circulation falling through the floor I guess this is pretty typical of the Post's backward progress in recent years.
It looks as though they are finally getting round to charging for some site features. I guess this had to come but even so it will be a disappointing day for racing fans.

I think we may look back to the era of the early 2000s as a golden era for racing fans.
We had tax free betting, great sign up bonuses, free coverage of every race on Attheraces satellite channel, free access to form and analysis on Racing post site.

In 2009 we now face a £20 per month charge to watch half the UK racing on Racing UK, membership fees on the RacingPost site, and reduced sign up promos.
Still, its miles better than 15 years ago when we had betting tax on all bets, a few races on terrestrial TV every now and again, and comparing the odds meant walking next from one shop to another, so let's not get too despondent about the state of play.

Royal Ascot lives up to its billing

Jealous Again - bullet speed

The greatest meeting in the world lived up to its reputation with some great races, great stories, and just as importantly, great profits for me!

I looked at the two year old race on the first day, and spotted a USA trained runner, Strike The Tiger who had won its only race on dirt over 4.5f.
Knowing the US horses are fast starters I fancied I could back the horse and lay off in running.
The horse was 55 on Betfair, and I had a few quid on.
It got into a clear lead at halfway, and i locked in a profit, but let the majority ride, and despite a long last furlong it held on by a neck for the first ever US trained winner at Royal Ascot.

My man in the long grass told me that wednesdays US runner Jealous Again was showing the most speed of any horse that the Wesley Ward stable had brought over.
Indeed the message from Newmarket was that the stall one berth was perfect for this fast starting rails runner.
Sure enough, John Velasquez got the filly in the box position and the opposition were burned off after two furlongs as the filly stormed to a 5 length win in a fast time that had Timeform calling it the best two year old filly for 20 years at the meeting. And the best bit - a 10/1 price.

After this the books took cover, shortening up the remaining three Ward runners to the front three in the betting despite the work watchers not being keen on their chances over longer trips.
Sure enough they were all unplaced, leaving my friend Andrew to comment very wisely about those who jumped on the ward bandwagon, just as the wheels fell off -

'If you haven't been to the wedding - don't go to the funeral!'

Wise words my friend.

Dreaming of the WSOP

Our house move is taking up the lion's share of my time these days.

In preparation I have been taking steps to cash out from all my betting accounts.

The more sophisticated of you will know the reason why I am doing this, but if you don't, then look up the word g_nome in the dictionary or even better, google it with a betting context.

It's been a quiet time for me, with just a few hours of poker here and there. At the start of the month I ran very good, then very bad, and then pretty steady. I've tightened up a touch pre-flop which has made hands generally easier to play as I'm not hitting middle or bottom pair and wondering where I stand as often as I was before.

I was concerned that tightening up like this means you don't make as much from your monster hands as you have lost the element of disguise, as decent opponents can narrow down your holdings much easier.

As I play against many of the same opponents on a regular basis, I guess it does no harm to tweak your playing style a little here and there, as it stops them getting a reliable line on your play.

As many readers will be aware, the World Series of Poker is taking place at the moment. A friend of mine Mr Pink has qualified for the $10,000 buy-in Main Event. Well done Sir! Good luck, and let's hope you can bring some prize money back to the UK. It's amazing how many guys from the ITH forum have been to the big dance over the past few years. It would be great if one of them could make it into the money.

Perhaps I will make it myself - it would be great to win an all-expenses trip never mind the chance of playing in the world's most famous poker tournament.

Then again, I will have to start playing some qualifiers first!

In Racing, this week features my favourite meeting of the year, namely Royal Ascot. I haven't really got too many opinions to put forward at this stage, but I will be having a good look at the handicaps, particularly those run in the second half of the week.

This meeting is the time when top trainers really come into their own, and year in, year out the handicaps are won by progressive horses who have been trained for the big meeting.

Updates may be infrequent - I'm moving!

Blencathra viewed from Derwentwater

Just a note to readers that I am relocating to the North Lakes region of the UK.
We haven't got an exact location confirmed yet, but need to be in commutable distance from Penrith.
At this stage the area they call the Lyvennet Valley, between the M6 and the River Eden, looks appealing although North Western Penrith, near Greystoke also looks good, from where the mountain (or 'fell') Blencathra is just a couple of miles away.

With so many house related tasks to do, betting activity will inevitably be taking a back seat.
I will hope to post previews and thoughts on Royal Ascot, and the Haye v Klitschko fight amongst others though.

Stay in action...

Sexton lands big payout - just

Rogie - couldn't see

I hope some people followed my previous column where I tipped Sam Sexton at 5/1 to defy the odds and beat martin rogan in his belfast backyard.

The money was in the bank, but Sexton survived an almighty scare, when starting the 8th round in complete control, and Rogan seeming to be on the brink of being pulled out, the Belfast hard man finally landed a big punch that turned the contest on its head and left Sexton on the brink, seemingly not defending himself and looking likely to be KO'd.
Referee Dave Parris gave Sexton every assistance in warning Rogan for an illegal blow, then allowing a gumshield time out before finally calling a halt to the action with 40 seconds left and consulting the doctor who ruled Rogan's eye left him in no position to continue.
I know favourite backers at 1/9 were not too happy to say the least, but I was over the moon.
I had laid off at the end of the 8th locking in a certain profit no matter what outcome but by far the better result was a Sexton win.

In other news I went to Haydock last weekend with the guys but struck out, backing numerous placed horses but no winners.

Apart from that, I've taken an interest in Black bear Island for next Saturday's Derby at 10/1. This is a horse that I believe has a future at Group 1 level in staying events. Whether he can show his best on this quirky course is another matter but I'm hoping for a good show, and i think their is a bit of value in this horse.

Sexton has a squeak

Friday gives us the chance to watch a decent heavyweight clash between Martin Rogan & Sam Sexton for the Commonwealth title.
You may recall Sexton did us a favour in landing the Prizefighter title when he stopped the favourite Chris Burton in the last round of the final.

Rogan won the first version of Prizefighter and his record stands at 12-0 (6 Kos). Sexton's slate reads 11-1 (4 Kos).

Rogan turned pro at the advanced age of 33 in 2004, after limited amateur experience. After winning prizefighter last year he took on former Olympic Gold medallist Audley Harrison and as a 5/1 underdog scraped a wafer thin 96-95 points decision after 10 scrappy rounds.
In his last outing he took on former world title challenger Matt Skelton.
Again Rogan was odds-on to have his unbeaten record shattered but with a strangely lethargic Skelton was out muscled and outworked in a brawl. When Skelton finally landed in rounds 8 and 9 Rogan looked desperately tired but the effort took its toll on big Matt.
Rogan found extra reserves and rallied to put Skelton down for the first time in his career, before the towel came in from the Skelton corner.

The first defence of his crown is against Sam Sexton, who has his first shot at the big time.

24 year old Sexton was an international class amateur who turned pro at 21 after becoming fed up with the judging in International competitions.
Since he gave up the headguard he has compiled a solid 11-1 record including the Prizefighter success, which he followed up with a 6th round KO of Irishman Colin Kenna. Winning his last two by KO suggests Sexton is punching harder these days.

The one blot on his record is a final round stoppage defeat to fellow unbeaten prospect Big Derek Chisora. I haven't seen this fight but the reports suggested Sexton was outboxing Chisora before the big man landed one of his haymakers - Sexton didn't go down but took 10 unanswered punches and the ref stopped it.

Looking at the fight betting - Rogan is 1/5, Sexton 5/1 25 Draw.

Verdict

Rogan has to be favourite - he is on home turf, and in his last two fights he has shown that he is not just a 3 round brawler, but can mix it at British title level. He has also demonstrated he can go the distance. Conversely Sexton is untested beyond 6, has been stopped, and is the away man.
But in Sexton's favour, he is the better boxer with top level amateur experience and is used to fighting abroad form his England days. He is 14 years younger, and just as big as 'Rogie' who is not massive for a heavyweight.
Also Rogan could be flattered by his win over Skelton. Big Matt looked as though he had 'gone', and at 42 age could have finally caught up with him. Maybe Rogan was too good but he could have been made to look that way. That contest was a tough contest too, with Rogie digging deep. It may well be he can't come up again for another fight so quickly.

I think Sexton has a better chance than the odds suggest.
I think Sexton has a good chance of outboxing Rogan, particularly in the first few rounds. Possibly Rogan will be too rough and tough and wear down Sexton but the chance of locking in a profit on an in running play looks a decent option to me.

By the way,I have it 'from the horse's mouth' that Sexton is in great shape and very confident of doign the business. Danny Flexen told me he has spoken to Sexton and I also got the above photo direct from the camp.

Hatton v Pacquaio post script

I must amdit to being surprised at the one-sided nature of the Hatton Pacquiao bout.
I had backed Pacquaio at 2.5 to win inside the distance but I thought the fight would be close for a few rounds before the volume of punches took their toll.
In the event it was a massacre with Hatton in trouble as soon as any power punch landed. He was down twice in the first round and despite a small rally at the start of the second was chillingly knocked out in the dying seconds of round two.

There is no shame in losing to a great opponent in the peak of his career, and Hatton shouldn't be criticised for that.
What is disturbing is that he appears to have gone into a quick decline, with his punch resistance seemingly gone completely.
Was it that pacquiao was so good or Hatton so bad?
Possibly a bit of both.

So where should Hatton go now?
I think he should hang his gloves up. As Frank Warren said, it's no use having all the money in the world if you can't remember where the bank is.
But because money talsk in boxing, and Hatton is 'box office' it looks as though Team Hatton will probably try and find an opponent who looks credible on paper but can be beaten.
Aussie lightweight Mike Katsidis may get the call but this brawler would surely fancy his chances against a fading Hatton. A fight with Amir Khan would be interesting and he would be clear favourite for that one. Hills said it would be 2/5 Hatton but there would be plenty wanting to back the Bolton man.
I don't want to come across as knocking Ricky - he has given so much to British Boxing and his record from the Kosta Tzyzu fight onwards is outstanding.
I will miss the big Vegas nights he has brought us, but it is the right time to call it a day.

It has been a good few weeks on the boxing front with a good string of results.
Sadly that has not been the case on the virtual poker tables as I have made my customary terrible start to the month over at William Hill. Let's hope the pattern from April where I came back strongly is repeated, but sooner rather than later.
Hills have upped the rakeback to 50% this month which is 20% more than usual. I hope that will bring in a decent sum by the end of the month when the extra 20% is paid.